Box Office Prediction Maverick 2012


The Premiere Box Office Prediction Game Site.

A new box office gaming site from Movie Mavericks. Predict opening weekend numbers to become the Box Office Ace!

Every week we’ll be placing our predictions for opening box office weekends for the biggest films in release this year, 2012, here on this page. Follow along with us and leave a comment with your expectations and predictions for the weekend. We get the bar value from the Hollywood Stock Exchange derivatives. All numbers are in millions and rounded to the nearest hundred thousand. We are carrying a running total of how far off we are by weekend, the person with the smallest number wins. We are doing three day weekends only, no four or five day holiday weekends allowed. There can be only one box office prediction maverick, who will it be?

You can use the pagination at the bottom to skip to a past weekend.

Weekend #52, Dec 28-30, 2012

Difference Running Totals:
Trevor: $1036.4
Jason: $985.9

Django Unchained

HSX Bar: $30
Trevor: $23
Jason: $22

Actual: $30.1

Les Miserables

HSX Bar: $30
Trevor: $28
Jason: $26

Actual: $27.3

Parental Guidance

HSX Bar: $10
Trevor: $9
Jason: $14

Actual: $14.6


138 thoughts on “Box Office Prediction Maverick 2012

  • September 25, 2012 at 6:53 pm
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    Hi guys!

    So another sub-par weekend. I did have the chance to see Dredd, which I thought was just okay. I felt like it should have been much better, and was a little bit underwhelming.

    The other film I had the chance to see was The Master. Let me start by saying that Joaquin Phoenix gives the best performance I’ve ever seen him give. I’d say that at this point, he’d be the front-runner for Best Supporting Actor. Phillip Seymour Hoffman is also quite good, and will undoubtedly be getting nominated for his performance as well. I thought the film’s score and cinematography were very good too, however I was completely unimpressed with the story.

    Anyway, on to this coming weekend’s releases:

    Hotel Transylvania – I’m going with my gut feeling on this one, and it’s telling me that this is going to be a decent sized hit. The trailer seems to appeal to kids (at least my two oldest), as well as adults (me). I think the bar is set just about right, although I think it falls just short. $23M

    Looper – I’m not even going to pretend to lie. I’m seriously looking forward to seeing this one. I think it’s been marketed really well, and that Gordon-Levitt and Willis look great in the trailers. I think the bar is set about right on this one as well, and in this case I’m going just over it. $26M (What happened to all that optimism Trevor!?)

    Won’t Back Down – I think that audiences have started to become increasingly picky when deciding what movies they want to spend money on. People just don’t seem to want to spend money to see these types of movies right now. It’s another case where I think the bar is just about right, and this time I’m going with it. $5M

    Reply
    • September 26, 2012 at 4:01 pm
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      This month happened to my optimism. I’d like to see Looper go that high, but in the past these movies haven’t done all that well, and Willis isn’t a surefire box office draw anymore, he’s kind of diluted his star power.

      I don’t have any reason to want to see The Master, and after your review here, I think I’m good. I get it, I’ve seen the trailers, I just don’t see how that can be an interesting movie that will hold my attention.

      Reply
  • September 20, 2012 at 8:06 am
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    Hey guys!

    Another lackluster weekend behind us, we finally start getting what looks like some quality films.

    I’ll start with End of Watch, which I saw on Tuesday. I’ll start by saying if you have a problem with shaky cam films, then you may want to stay away from this one. It’s shot in a documentary/found footage style through most of the movie. As for the movie itself, I was surprised by how much I liked the movie. It’s extremely gritty and violent, and for the most part I felt it had a high level of realism to it. Unfortunately, I don’t think this is the kind of film that will draw much of an audience. 13M

    Trouble with the Curve is a movie that I’m on the fence with. I think there are enough fans of Clint Eastwood, Amy Adams and baseball in general that the film could open fairly decent (low 20s). However, I think with all the other choices available though that this could fall short. I’m going to follow Trevor’s usual line of thinking and go high, but I’m uncomfortable doing it. $16M

    House at the End of the Street is a film that I think could finish the weekend #1. Jennifer Lawrence has such appeal that with this being PG-13 there’s a very good chance younger women (and men) come out just to see her. At the same time, horror movies with half decent word of mouth do pretty well, so how well it does over the weekend could all depend on how it performs on Friday. $18M

    Finally the newest remake to come through the pipeline, Dredd 3D. I’ll admit that at first I was extremely leary of this one. I can’t say that I remember many people asking for a remake of the 90s Sly Stallone movie, but I guess the same thing could be said for the countless remakes we’ve been getting as a whole. Either way, I’ve heard enough from people who saw the film at Comic-con and have seen the Rotten Tomatoes numbers to know that this does seem to be connecting with fans. $16M

    On a side note, with The Master performing so well in such a small number of theaters and now expanding wider, what kind of numbers do you think it pulls in for the weekend?

    Reply
  • September 11, 2012 at 5:42 am
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    Hi guys!!

    Well another shitty weekend behind, and finally we come to a weekend in which things look a little bit brighter.

    As a big fan of Finding Nemo, mostly for sentimental reasons, I’m really looking forward to seeing this. As much as I’m not a fan of 3D, I do find that I prefer most 3D animation, and look forward to seeing how the underwater creations looks in that format. If there’s one thing that concerns me its that if the movie is as successful as I expect it to be, then it increases the likelihood of an unnecessary sequel. $27M

    I’ve never seen any of the Resident Evil films, so I’ve really got no opinion or expectation with regards to the movies themselves. In looking at how the past films performed at the box office, September is when all but the first was released and they all seemed to do about the same. I’ve heard from a few fans of the series who say that as much as they disliked the last film, they think this one has some potential. I guess I’ll take their word for it. $25M

    Reply
  • September 5, 2012 at 6:26 pm
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    Hi guys!!

    It feels like its been forever since anything really, really good has been in theaters. I liked both Premium Rush and Lawless, but neither was a flawless film.

    As for this weekend, I’ve got little hope that The Words does much; another misstep for Bradley Cooper it appears. I’m going with $7M, but have little faith in it even earning that much.

    I can’t even tell you if I’ve seen a trailer for The Cold Light of Day on television. I think the marketing for the film has been horrendous, and therefore with so few knowing about the film there’s not going to be much of an audience for it. I’ll be surprised if it brings in much more than $5M.

    Reply
    • September 6, 2012 at 5:29 pm
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      Joe, I agree with your assessment of Cold Light of Day. This movie has Direct-to Dvd written all over it. Many will call it a flop, but in reality it should never have been given this half-assed release. Give the film a fighting chance and market it properly, also interesting it is being released under the Summit banner. Seems as if Lionsgate wants no part of this stinker.

      Reply
      • September 7, 2012 at 5:40 am
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        Jason, I’m not big on Rotten Tomatoes but have you seen how badly it’s doing on there? I’m trying to see if I can get out to see it this weekend, because I have to know how bad it possibly is.

        Reply
        • September 7, 2012 at 3:01 pm
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          No Joe, don’t do it! The Cold Light of Day is a terrible movie. Honestly it makes you worry about Cavill playing Superman, he’s that bad in it. Willis is hardly in it, and you can tell he’s just picking up a check. Don’t waste your money or time, rent it when it comes out if you absolutely have to see it.

          Reply
          • September 10, 2012 at 5:13 am
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            Trevor, you’ll be happy to know that I went to see Raiders of the Lost Ark in IMAX and didn’t waste my time going to see The Cold Light of Day. I’ve got a bad feeling that we’re all going to be worrying about Cavill playing Superman. Has he done anything to make you think he was a good choice for the role?

            Reply
            • September 10, 2012 at 2:23 pm
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              Joe, How was Raiders on the IMAX I have been wrestling with myself all weekend about paying top dollar for something I’ll own on Blu Ray in the coming months? As for Cold Light of Day, it is on the level of the 50 Cent starring straight to DVD action flicks. In other words, not worth the price of theatrical admission.

              Reply
              • September 10, 2012 at 4:24 pm
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                Jason, the film looked great in the IMAX format, but couldn’t hold a candle to John Williams’ score. I felt like if I had closed by eyes, I could have been sitting front row at an Orchestra concert. It was without a doubt the most beautiful sounding movie I’ve ever been to.

                Reply
            • September 10, 2012 at 4:54 pm
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              If anything The Cold Light of Day puts Cavill in a bad light. I can’t be sure if it’s just his character in that movie, but he comes off as brain dead and very timid. Maybe a good Clarke Kent, but just doesn’t have the screen presence for Superman.

              Reply
  • August 30, 2012 at 4:01 pm
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    Hi guys!!

    Chalk up my late predictions to my vacation. As for the upcoming weekend, I’ve got hope that Lawless will be good; but I’d be lying if I said I thought it would be a box office success. $10M

    I like Jeffrey Dean Morgan, but I think it’s safe to say that he’s not going to win over many fans with The Possession. I think The Apparition showed that there’s just not an audience for horror movies at this time. $6M

    Something I never could have imagined myself saying as a kid: I’m so happy the summer is finally ending!!!

    Reply
      • September 2, 2012 at 3:25 pm
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        Yeah, I guess I really shouldn’t have gone with my gut on The Possession. I did the same thing earlier this year with The Woman in Black, only to have the same result.

        Reply
  • August 23, 2012 at 5:24 am
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    Hi guys!

    I was completely surprised by how badly The Expendables 2 did last weekend. The sad part is that I thought the movie was an improvement over the first, and has some really funny dialogue from Sly, Arnold, Bruce and Chuck Norris (who was awesome in his short amount of time on screen).

    A bit late this week, but here’s my upcoming predictions for the weekend.

    Premium Rush – Joseph Gordon-Levitt has been hot as of late, and is slowly developing a bit of a following. I think the film could suffer from a dated concept; I mean, I know when I worked in Center City in Philadelphia, I sure as hell didn’t see many bike Messengers. I think the bar is set just about right, but I’m going to skew slightly above it. $11M

    Hit & Run – I’ve gotten to the point that although Bradley Cooper is charismatic, he takes way too many shit roles; this looks like another one. I think this tanks and unless we see Cooper give a standout performance in something soon, his star begins to fade. $4M

    The Apparition – Horror movies are so difficult to get a read on, and this one is no different. I think any horror film released far in advance of Halloween is an admission that it’s not really all that good. In going with that thougt, I’m going to stay low with this as well. $8M

    Reply
    • August 24, 2012 at 2:21 am
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      We were surprised at Expendables 2’s low box office as well, but we understood after seeing it. I think Jason and I might be in the minority, but the first one was better, and neither are really that good.

      It’s funny that you talk about Bradley Cooper with Hit & Run being that he’s not the star of the film, it’s Dax Shepard and Kristen Bell. That advertising is falling flat, somewhat outrageous in its claims and off-putting to audiences. Not to mention they are really over selling Cooper. I thought $4m as well, but after its opening day on Wednesday of $625k it might be in some real trouble this weekend.

      Looks like all three of us are pretty close this weekend, but with such crap films it’s to be expected. Definitely the end of summer now.

      Reply
      • August 26, 2012 at 3:05 pm
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        I’ll agree that neither are very good, but I thought the 2nd was an improvement over the first. However, I can see where you guys are coming from in what problems you have with it.

        I don’t think Shephard and Bell are capable of selling the film (or anything for that matter), so that makes Cooper the obvious thing to promote and yes, they are over selling him quite a bit. It seemed to have recovered from it’s awful start, but should still finish its run with low numbers.

        The same can’t be said for The Apparition, which downright tanked.

        Premium Rush under-performed as well, which is disappointing because I found the movie to be pretty decent. I liked the “action” and “suspense” if you will, but the movie had a lot of humor too. Shannon gives an over-the-top performance, but I liked it.

        The fall can’t get here soon enough!

        Reply
  • August 14, 2012 at 10:59 am
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    Hi guys!!

    I guess you could say that last weekend was a good one, but I’m not sure that the studio was exected a higher opening for The Bourne Legacy. Also, to be honorable and play fair, I changed my prediction for Nitro Circus on my site to $2.3M after I found out what it was about.

    I think this weekend is going to be a “meh” weekend. Aside from The Expendables 2, I don’t think the other 3 movies are going to be memorable at all. So here goes:

    The Expendables 2: I expect very little in the form of plot, although from the looks of things there’s a chance there may be somewhat of a plot this time around. I think so many of these guys are iconic (Liam Hemsworth!?!?!) that they are able to draw a big crowd. $40M

    Paranorman – I’m actually looking forward to this one..c’mon now, a kids movie about death? What’s not too like? and it’s in 3D! HAHA I’ll be seeing this for sure! $12M

    Sparkle – Whitney Houston’s last movie….who really gives a shit!? “Crack is whack” Houston doesn’t even register on my radar, but I have no doubt her die hard fans will turn out. $13M

    The Odd Life of Timothy Green – I saw this one last week and I gotta say that I think Disney dishonestly marketed this movie. It’s not a typical happy Disney flick, although it does have your “happy moments”, it’s overall a sad film. My kids claim that they liked it, but I think it went completely over their head. – $12M

    Reply
  • August 7, 2012 at 10:12 am
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    Hi guys!!

    It was another disappointing weekend. Of the 31 weekends, how many have been disappointments and how bad would the box office have turned out this year if The Avengers didn’t pull in the numbers it did?

    I’m relatively high on The Bourne Legacy this weekend, but no where close to $40M. I think the Bourne brand is established and thought the first 3 films were pretty good, and I’m interested in seeing what Renner can do. I’ve got it opening at $34M

    I’m not a big comedy fan, and I’ve not even remotely close to being a fan of Ferrell. I do think Galifianakis is pretty funny, but his character in this doesn’t impress me. I’m going waaay under with $23M.

    Didn’t we just get a geriatric hotel film?? I’m sure Meryl Streep will get an Oscar nomination, because she always does. This just doesn’t look like a box office hit. I’m going with $11M.

    I don’t know the first thing about Nitro Circus, so I’m going to just take a guess of $5M.

    I think the summer as a whole has been seriously disappointing.

    Reply
    • August 7, 2012 at 11:07 pm
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      Seriously disappointing yes, but at least it’s not as bad as summer of 2010.

      Reply
  • August 1, 2012 at 1:34 pm
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    Hi guys!

    As expected, last weekend was pretty shitty….and deservedly so. It’s about time crap movies earned equivalent box office takes. Here’s a question for you, what’s been the biggest surprise at the box office this year? whether it’s the $600+ million The Avengers earned, or how badly Taylor Kitsch’s movies performed?

    As for this weekend, I’m pretty much at a lost. I think Total Recall looks fairly decent, and could be a big hit..BUT, I don’t think there’s any chance the movie gets to $40M. I’m going with $31M, but not confidently.

    Diary of a Wimpy Kid:Dog Days is another odd movie to gauge. The books are hugely successful, and the first 2 movies both of which opened in March of their respective years were modest hits. I expect about the same for this one ($23M), and am confident we’ll be getting another Diary of a Wimpy Kid movie in 2 years.

    Reply
  • July 25, 2012 at 5:55 pm
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    Hi guys!

    I’m just not feeling the buzz for The Watch and think it disappoints this weekend, much like it seems Trevor does. $20M

    Seriously, who the hell sees shit like Step Up Revolution!??! $10M

    Reply

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