T and J discuss the weekend box office of July 23-35, 2010. Inception, Salt, Despicable Me, The Sorcerer’s Apprentice, Toy Story 3.
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Having seen a test screening, I will say that it’s pretty funny (not this year’s Hangover which some would like to believe), and early reviews are decent. But the marketing hasn’t done the best job selling the laughs, it has a theater count lower than most recent comedies at the moment, and buzz levels on Twitter and Facebook are pretty low. Still, the RS/MTC rule suggests a potential breakout, but it’s hard to imagine it hitting 30M for the weekend.
Even though a Date Night OW seems reasonable and fair, it’s not likely to have its near 4x multiplier with The Other Guys coming out its second weekend. Most summers usually only have room for one big breakout comedy with a nice multiplier and I think Grown Ups has filled that quota and that will probably pass 150M by the end of this weekend even with Schmucks opening.
BTW, when I thought of “animated critics”, I thought it would be something that’s tongue-in-cheek, but it feels very professional and pleasant and that’s good, too.
I would be surprised if Schmucks hits $30M opening weekend. And I agree it’s not going to reach what Date Night did with almost $100M, but regardless anything over $20M OW I would consider a hit for this type of film. And people can’t keep comparing every comedy to ‘The Hangover’, it’s not right, most comedies can’t live up to those numbers, and it’s not like next year we’re gonna be comparing comedies to ‘Grown Ups’. The idea behind the film is probably what’s making some really like it and others just not care. Doesn’t make it bad or unfunny, just harder to sell.
I think Inception will be number 1 again this weekend. Cats & Dogs 2 I think is being overestimated solely on theater count and the 3D factor. And I don’t think the Dinner for Schmucks trailers have gotten people excited about the movie, at least from my experiences of seeing them in the theater.
You’re probably correct, if Inception holds as well next weekend then it will be #1.
RS tracking right now is
Cats and Dogs – high 20’s
Dinner for Schmucks – mid teens
Charlie St. Cloud – low teens
MTC is
Cats and Dogs – 14m
Dinner for Schmucks – 22m
Charlie St. Cloud – 15m
Either way it pans out Inception has a strong shot at holding #1. I do think Cats and Dogs will do better than MTC.
I think Schmucks is good for Date Night’s OW. That would be pretty solid. Judging from people around the internet and elsewhere, people are either really looking forward to Schmucks or think it looks awful.
If Schmucks does Date Night numbers then that is another hit for Steve Carell. Date Night was good as a date movie, not sure if that’s the same for Schmucks, as you said it’s a polarizing film and some people seem to think it’s trying too hard to be a ‘smart’ comedy.