Every week we’ll be placing our predictions for opening box office weekends for the biggest films in release this year, 2012, here on this page. Follow along with us and leave a comment with your expectations and predictions for the weekend (sign up to become a member and we’ll award points to those that play along, based on how close they come to weekend actuals. Those points can be used in winning our giveaways). We get the bar value from the Hollywood Stock Exchange derivatives. All numbers are in millions and rounded to the nearest hundred thousand. We are carrying a running total of how far off we are by weekend, the person with the smallest number wins. We are doing three day weekends only, no four or five day holiday weekends allowed. There can be only one box office prediction maverick, who will it be?
You can use the pagination at the bottom to skip to a past weekend.
Weekend #20, May 18, 2012
Difference Running Totals: (as of Mon May 14, 2012)
Trevor: $371.4
Jason: $356.3
Split: $15.1 – Jason
Battleship
HSX Bar: $45
Trevor: $30
Jason: $36
Actual: $–
The Dictator
HSX Bar: $25
Trevor: $21
Jason: $18
Actual: $–
What to Expect When You’re Expecting
HSX Bar: $25
Trevor: $24
Jason: $27
Actual: $–
Podcast EP111: Chernobyl Diaries and Men in Black 3 Predictions, American Warships
Podcast EP110: Skyfall Poster, Possessed Trailers, Blade Runner 2, Sin City 2
Podcast EP109: Rachel McAdams Gets Passionate For Noomi Rapace, Aaron Sorkin, Hulk
Podcast EP108: Battleship, The Dictator, What To Expect Predictions Plus News
Podcast EP107: Joss Whedon Thanks Avengers Fans, More Smurfs Dark Knight Rises News
Podcast EP106: Kick-Ass 2, Avengers Box Office, Vince Vaughn As Starbuck, More News
Podcast EP105: The Avengers Breaks Box Office Records, Dark Shadows Predictions
Podcast EP104: Little Shop Of Horrors Remake, Michael Bay’s A Pirate, Cool Trailers
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Joe Giuliano said on May 21, 2012
Boy, what a $hitty weekend this past one was at the box office! ugh!!
As for the coming weekend, I don’t recall a major clamoring for a new Men in Black film; although the effects look rather impressive, and I love Josh Brolin’s impersonation of Tommy Lee Jones. Chernobyl Diaries could go either way, and I’m leaning towards the other way.
Men in Black III – $85m (although my gut tells me closer to $72m)
Chernobyl Diaries – $15m
Joe Giuliano said on May 14, 2012
This is a tough weekend…The Avengers is just continuing to perform so damn well that it’s impossible for it not to affect the rest of the box office.
Battleship – $44m
The Dictator – $18m
What to Expect – $27m
Trevor Anderson said on May 18, 2012
Battleship midnights were less than $500k, which puts it at $30M or less for the weekend, unless it rallies. Avengers will definitely be number one again this weekend though.
Joe Giuliano said on May 20, 2012
Wow, what a terrible weekend at the box office! I’m not entirely surprised by Battleship, although I think the movie is an entertaining popcorn film, just don’t expect much in the form of decent acting or things that make any sense whatsoever….oh, and Brooklyn Decker is just so nice to look at! Anyway, to get back on track, I’m really surprised at how poorly What to Expect did. My wife and I saw it this afternoon, and although I didn’t think it was all that good, I expected to be a lot worse than what it was.
Jason Rugaard said on May 21, 2012
In regards to Battleship, as Leonard Maltin said “Saying something wasn’t as bad as I feared isn’t the same thing as saying it was good, is it?”
Joe Giuliano said on May 9, 2012
Hey guys, so do you think we get to see a $100m second weekend for The Avengers? I think it’s got a legit shot at doing it.
Dark Shadows – $31m
Jason Rugaard said on May 10, 2012
I think $100 million is very likely. The midweek grosses are astronomical, at the very least it’s doing $80. The word-of-mouth on this is excellent and I hear it has a high repeat viewing factor. Look for $102m for the mother’s day weekend.
Joe Giuliano said on May 10, 2012
Jason,
I’m amazed at the midweek numbers. I think it pulls in close to $110 to this weekend.
I’m seriously wondering now that Dark Knight Rises is going to be able to beat this for top grossing movie of the summer (or year).
Joe Giuliano said on May 14, 2012
can we finally be done with the Tim Burton / Johnny Depp partnership on crap films?
Joe Giuliano said on May 7, 2012
Hey guys…can you believe it? $200m opening. I actually posted on Filmgo that I thought it had a shot (albeit a small one) at $200..and here’s it may push upwards of close to $210m…that’s insane!!
I don’t think Dark Shadows has a snowball’s chance in hell of over performing this weekend. – $31m
Trevor Anderson said on May 8, 2012
I agree. Avengers is doing insane business, Marvel really has a strangle hold on comic book movies at the moment, even with Dark Knight Rises and Man of Steel, DC could never hope to pull off a Justice League movie anytime soon.
Dark Shadows is in this time slot because Alice in Wonderland opened in April, they’re trying to repeat that but it looks like they should have gone for last month when they would be competing against Hunger Games instead.
Joe Giuliano said on April 30, 2012
alright boys…the summer season starts this weekend, and I’m going all-in…The Avengers will set records, starting opening weekend. $173 million, and I think it could go higher.
Joe Giuliano said on April 24, 2012
The Five-Year Engagement – $21m
Pirates! Band of Misfits – $13m
Safe – $11m
The Raven – $7m
It’s sad when of the 4 new releases opening this weekend, the only one I’d see if I had to would be Safe..but I will end up seeing Pirates! with my kids. I guess the studios wanted to be sure to get these out there before the juggernaut that is The Avengers kicks off the “summer movie season”.
Joe Giuliano said on April 19, 2012
Is it me, or does it seem like we get a Nicholas Sparks movie every 3 months now..WTH!?
The Lucky One – $21m
Think Like a Man – $19m
Chimpanzee – $6m
BTW guys, I had the opportunity to see The Avengers. It kicked major a$$!!!!
Jason Rugaard said on April 19, 2012
Joe do you think Avengers will be the highest grossing of the summer superhero films? Do you place it as the best Marvel/Disney production?
Joe Giuliano said on April 19, 2012
Jason, I honestly though that Dark Knight Rises was going to take the summer. It’s got all the hype, history, following and Christopher Nolan going for it. After seeing The Avengers and being blown away by it, and believe me when I tell you I went in with high expectations, I think there’s a very good possibility it’s the highest grossing film of the year; not just the summer.
As for it being the best Marvel/Disney production, I don’t even think it’s close. I liked Iron Man (Iron Man 2 took a step back for me). I thought The Incredible Hulk was an improvement over Ang Lee’s movie, but let’s be realistic…how hard was that? It wasn’t the kind of movie you build a franchise on. I very much liked Thor, and Captain America, and look forward to how they move those franchises forward. It was my enjoyment of all those previous films that set the bar so high for my expectations. I seriously thought the movie was that damn good!
I’m giving it an A+, and not blinking an eye about doing it.
Joe Giuliano said on April 19, 2012
as a side note, and without giving away anything. There was all the initial talk that this was going to be an Iron Man movie, and then the later talk that it was going to be a Captain America movie…trust me when I tell you, that’s not the case whatsoever.
Jason Rugaard said on April 20, 2012
Ok, Now I’m getting stoked. The Hollywood Reporter gave it a fantastic review as well. Summer Movie season is starting with a bang.
Joe Giuliano said on April 10, 2012
Happy Belated Birthday Jason!
Cabin in the Woods – $26m
Lock Out – $10m
The Three Stooges – $9m
Trevor Anderson said on April 13, 2012
My hope is Cabin in the Woods does high twenties, but I feel like high teens is more likely. Hope you’re right about it.
Joe Giuliano said on April 13, 2012
I’m hopeful, but it’s not tracking that way right now….The Three Stooges is tracking for 20+…WTH!?
You guys are killing me with no podcast this week….make my days a whole lot longer in work!
Jason Rugaard said on April 17, 2012
Hey thanks Joe! It was a great Birthday feeling winning the weekend.
Joe Giuliano said on April 2, 2012
nice job this week Jason! You were finally able to pick up some ground on Trevor.
American Reunion – This is all about nostalgia and the characters we’ve grown up watching. I really enjoyed this movie quite a bit, and will be going to see it again tonight. I think this pulls in a big 25 – 40 audience, also known as fans of the original films, as well as the younger crowd that has watched the DVDs. I’m going over the bar and seeing eye to eye with Trevor – $40m
Titanic 3D – This is a tough one, because everyone and their mother (and grandmother) saw this when it was out originally. I don’t think that same audience is beating down the door to see it in 3D, and wants pay the surcharge to do it. However, with this month being the 100th anniversary of the Titanic’s sinking, I think it’s going to have a decent audience. I’m right in the middle of both of you guys – $33m
Joe Giuliano said on April 9, 2012
ouch!! I’m incredibly surprised by the low numbers for both American Reunion and Titanic! I sure hope that American Reunion has some legs, because it really was a fun and entertaining movie. I’d hate to see the franchise go out with a whimper, while so much of this other crap makes boatloads of money.
Trevor Anderson said on April 13, 2012
Ya very weak weekend.
Joe Giuliano said on March 27, 2012
Mirror, Mirror: $18m – I mean c’mon now, who really wants to see this garbage!? There’s not a single thing that looks good in any of the trailers, and it gets even worse when you see the trailers for Snow White and the Huntsman and how incredible that looks.
Wrath of the Titans: $46m – I’m really torn on this. Clash of the Titans was so bad, but opened to over $61m. The trailers really make Wrath look so much better than the last one, BUT you have the hold over from The Hunger Games which is going to affect how it performs this weekend. I’d go as high as $51m and as low as $41m, so I’m playing it in the middle.
Joe Giuliano said on March 19, 2012
Trevor, just think less than 3 weeks ago you were thinking “There’s a possibility for an opening near $90M, but surely over $70M.” and now you’re prediction $140 million!! Funny enough, I’m right there with you…I was leaning towards $145, but I really think this may pop over $150…I’m going to go with my gut, and say $152 million. I’ll be seeing it in IMAX at midnight Thursday, so here’s hoping it’s as good as it’s been built up to be.
Trevor Anderson said on March 27, 2012
Congrats Joe, once again you’re right on the head with the predictions!
Joe Giuliano said on March 27, 2012
Thanks Trevor….my cash flow is running low with all the money I’ve been spending on tickets!
Joe Giuliano said on March 12, 2012
I know a number of people (men and women) who have seen a screening of 21 Jump Street and none have come away disappointed. I think the word of mouth on this is going to be fairly positive and think the film is going to be a modest hit.
21 Jump Street – $36m
Trevor Anderson said on March 19, 2012
Nice prediction again Joe! Estimated $35m right now, should stay close to that target.
Joe Giuliano said on March 5, 2012
You guys made a good point on Friday’s podcast about how it’s easier to get a feel for how the box office will go as we get closer to the weekend; therefore, it’s only fair that since you both give your picks on Monday, that I do the same.
John Carter: $55m
Silent House: $8.5m (I’m seeing a screening of this tonight)
A Thousand Words: $5m (my gut tells me it’s closer to $2.5m)
Joe Giuliano said on March 12, 2012
Safe to say that I was WAAAAY off on John Carter.
Jason Rugaard said on March 12, 2012
I’m right there with you, brother. I sat in an empty auditorium on a Saturday 10p.m. showing, I knew then I had no chance of winning this week’s derby. Thanks for playing, we look forward to your 21 jump street prediction.
Joe Giuliano said on March 12, 2012
Jason, my son and I went and saw Journey 2 (in 3D) and then John Carter (in IMAX 3D) and I’m not sure which theater had more people in attendance. To make matters worse, after the film a majority of the people leaving were openly (and in some cases, loudly) calling the movie “one of the $hittiest movies I’ve ever seen”.
I personally thought it was just okay.
Joe Giuliano said on February 29, 2012
I’m looking forward to seeing The Lorax this weekend (maybe going to see Project X as well), and I think both films over perform.
The Lorax: $42m
Project X: $24m
Joe Giuliano said on March 1, 2012
Ok, I’m going higher on The Lorax….my gut tells me this is going to blow up this weekend.
The Lorax: $52m
Project X: $24m
I think the with the lack of family movies out there, and with it showing in 2d, 3d and IMAX it’s going to be a monster hit.
Joe Giuliano said on March 3, 2012
The Lorax is tracking for over $60m…that’s amazing! Project X is looking at about $20m.
Trevor/Jason, although it’s 3 weeks out..what’s your preliminary thoughts on the opening for Hunger Games?
Trevor Anderson said on March 3, 2012
Hunger Games will be huge. There’s a possibility for an opening near $90M, but surely over $70M.
Thanks to Lorax over performing looks like I win the weekend as I predicted a bigger turnout overall. Joe even without your adjustments you beat us both!
Joe Giuliano said on March 3, 2012
Yeah, I’m thinking Hunger Games pushes for $100m. I’ll be at the midnight IMAX screening on the 22nd.
There was just so little in the form of family entertainment that I had the feeling everyone was going to see The Lorax.
Joe Giuliano said on February 23, 2012
Act of Valor – $17m
Gone – $7m
Good Deeds – $19m
Wanderlust – $12
I don’t think Wanderlust (and Gone, for obvious reasons) makes the top 5 next week. I think Safe House, Journey 2 and The Vow (possibly) continue to hold up.
Joe Giuliano said on February 23, 2012
amend that…I’m going with Gone at $4m and Wanderlust at $10m. I think Safe House, Journey 2 and The Vow affect the numbers more than I initially thought.
Trevor Anderson said on February 28, 2012
That puts your weekend total at $50M – pretty close to the $51.4M actual, but not as close as my $51M
You beat Jason though. Next weekend should be interesting, me and Jason are only $2M apart this time.
Joe Giuliano said on February 17, 2012
Ghost Rider – $26m
This Means War – 15m
Trevor Anderson said on February 22, 2012
Looks like you beat us easily Joe! Great predictions.
Trevor Anderson said on February 11, 2012
Wow. So predictions from Friday for the weekend are:
The Vow: $40M
Safe House: $35M
Star Wars: $25M
Journey 2: $20M
Total: $120M – That puts me in the winner’s chair this weekend, if it continues to pan out the way it’s set.
Joe Giuliano said on February 10, 2012
I went to see Safe House last night, and the theater was pretty packed. The line for The Vow was outrageous; and had I known so many hot looking women were going to be seeing it at that hour, I might have gone as well! Star Wars had already been seated, but there were a fair number of fanboys in their costumes with light sabers in hand. Journey 2 was playing on the other side, so I couldn’t gauge the interest.
I’m sorry if this posts twice, I thought I submitted it a short while earlier but I had laptop issues and it didn’t appear to have gone through.
Trevor Anderson said on February 11, 2012
Ya, Safe House looks like it really pulled it out this weekend.
Joe Giuliano said on February 10, 2012
So I went to see a midnight showing of Safe House and the theater was pretty crowded…The line for The Vow was ridiculous, and Star Wars had already seated (with a bunch of fanboys in costume with lightsabres in hand). The Box Office is going to be HUGE this weekend!
Joe Giuliano said on February 8, 2012
My predictions for the weekend totals:
Journey 2: Mysterious Island – $17
Safe House – $27
Star Wars: Phantom Menace 3D – I think this could potentially reach 40+, but I’m going to go conservative and say $38
The Vow – Taking into consideration that it’s Valentine’s Day weekend, I’m going to play it safe with $24. My gut still tells me that it comes in closer to $18, but my head says it pulls in a decent sized female audience.
Jason Rugaard said on February 7, 2012
It may sound insane that I’m forecasting a $34 million opening weekend for The Vow. However on previous V-day weekends Dear John opened with $30,468,614 and Valentines Day with $56,260,707.
Joe Giuliano said on February 7, 2012
Jason, your reasoning is valid. A number of the women in my office have already made plans too see the film this weekend. I was way off last weekend on my The Woman in Black prediction, but I’m feeling this one is going to under perform…have to hold off right now on what I think it’s going to do.
Joe said on February 4, 2012
I really though The Woman in Black was going to tank…blew that one big time:
Chronicle – $19,000,000
The Woman in Black – $9,000,000
Big Miracle – $8,500,000
Trevor Anderson said on February 4, 2012
I didn’t think it could take Chronicle, but I also didn’t think either would hit $20M and now they both look to. With Woman in Black skewing to a more female audience it has a good shot at taking the Super Bowl weekend.
Joe said on February 4, 2012
Yeah, I really thought Chronicle was going to take the weekend. I thought it had a shot at $20m, but never thought Woman in Black was going to pull in the female audience. At this point, I think it should take the weekend, with the number of men that will be watching the Super Bowl.