Difference Running Totals:
HSX Bar: $15
HSX Bar: $30
HSX Bar: $10
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well boys, this is it; the last weekend of 2012!
I’ve had a lot of fun matching predictions with you fellas, and look forward to another year of doing so.
I’m not sure what to make of this weekend, with Django Unchained (which I really liked btw) and Les Miserables (which I’m trying to see tonight) both doing so well on Christmas. Having said that, I think both films, as well as Parental Guidance, come close to the bar. So here goes:
Django Unchained is typical Tarantino, and a far superior film to Inglorious Basterds if you ask me. The theater was packed when I saw it Thursday evening, and I heard a few people saying that this was their 2nd viewings. I’m going with $27M and wouldn’t be surprised to see it surpass $30M
The musical Les Miserables has a built-in audience, thanks to the popularity of the play. The cast is top-notch, and Anne Hathaway is already considered a front-runner for Best Supporting Actress. I think there’s going to be a big time push for the movie, and it ends the weekend in the #1 spot. $29M
Parental Guidance looks like it should have that family appeal, but I’m just not feeling it. Billy Crystal is just so far past his prime, that I’m not confident he’ll have the same charm he’s shown in previous comedies. I think older audiences will come out to see the movie, and it’ll have a good weekend..but I don’t foresee it having much in the form of legs. $12M
Here’s to a fantastic 2013 guys!!! Happy New Year to you both!!!
Four new release, and the only one I’ve got mild interest in seeing is Jack Reacher. It goes without saying that Christmas day can’t get here soon enough, because at least I think we’ll get quality film releases that day (Django Unchained and Les Miserables).
Here’s how I’m seeing this weekend’s films:
As I said, Jack Reacher is the only film opening that appears to have any potential as far as being good goes. I think Cruise is a big enough draw, that although fans of the Lee Childs character may not be warm to the idea of a 5’7 (I’m being generous) man playing the 6’5 character, I still think crowds turnout. I even think that the movie could be a surprise holiday season hit, but I think the bar is set too high. $20M
As much as I like Paul Rudd and Leslie Mann, This is 40, doesn’t have the look or feel of a typical Judd Apatow comedy. I think there’s an audience base for the film, but most of it will be fans clamoring for an actual comedy; I’m not sure this will be what they are looking for. $14M
I realize that it doesn’t cost Disney a ridiculous amount of money to convert these older films into 3D, but at what point does it begin to stop? You’d think Disney would recognize the popularity of their properties, and understand what does and doesn’t work. I’m a fan of Monsters, Inc., but not enough that I’d want to see it in 3D in theaters, forcing myself to have to pay the 3D upcharge for a movie I can watch on video from home right now. I think there’s enough other family films playing that Monsters, Inc. 3D doesn’t score with audiences. $9M
The last film of the weekend, and the one that I expect to be the worse of the bunch is The Guilt Trip. The Seth Rogan / Barbara Streisand film looks terrible based on the trailers alone. I will say that I find Seth Rogan to be funny in a majority of his performances, but I just haven’t seen anything to convince me that there’s anything humorous about this movie. $7M
I wish you both, your significant others and your families a very merry Christmas!!
my predictions for the weekend can be found on my movie blog here:
Yeah, I felt that $120M was high, but I won’t deny that I never thought the movie was going to finish under $100M.
I think saying December is a slow burn month is an understatement. It’s a month for Oscar hopefuls to hang around and be seen by the curiosity crowd, and for the anticipated winter blockbusters to have longer legs than the summer blockbusters typically do.
Thank god we get a quality film again! I’ll be seeing The Hobbit in IMAX 3D early Sunday morning, but I’ve got to admit to being tempted by the HFR 3D version of the film. I think I’m going to wait until I hear what the majority says about the format, but I may end up seeing that way just to quench my curiosity.
Anyway, I’m no where near as optimistic as the both of you are with how well The Hobbit is going to do this coming weekend….at least not you Trevor (I see your optimism has returned). I’m going to go with $120M, but I’m not sure that’s not towards the higher end.
At least you also went way too high with us, I should have known, I thought it might do what the others did and come in under $100M – December is a slow burn month.
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