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Box Office Prediction Maverick 2012


The Premiere Box Office Prediction Game Site.

A new box office gaming site from Movie Mavericks. Predict opening weekend numbers to become the Box Office Ace!

Every week we’ll be placing our predictions for opening box office weekends for the biggest films in release this year, 2012, here on this page. Follow along with us and leave a comment with your expectations and predictions for the weekend. We get the bar value from the Hollywood Stock Exchange derivatives. All numbers are in millions and rounded to the nearest hundred thousand. We are carrying a running total of how far off we are by weekend, the person with the smallest number wins. We are doing three day weekends only, no four or five day holiday weekends allowed. There can be only one box office prediction maverick, who will it be?

You can use the pagination at the bottom to skip to a past weekend.

Weekend #52, Dec 28-30, 2012

Difference Running Totals:
Trevor: $1036.4
Jason: $985.9

Django Unchained

HSX Bar: $30
Trevor: $23
Jason: $22

Actual: $30.1

Les Miserables

HSX Bar: $30
Trevor: $28
Jason: $26

Actual: $27.3

Parental Guidance

HSX Bar: $10
Trevor: $9
Jason: $14

Actual: $14.6


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138 Responses to Box Office Prediction Maverick 2012

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  • You guys made a good point on Friday’s podcast about how it’s easier to get a feel for how the box office will go as we get closer to the weekend; therefore, it’s only fair that since you both give your picks on Monday, that I do the same.

    John Carter: $55m
    Silent House: $8.5m (I’m seeing a screening of this tonight)
    A Thousand Words: $5m (my gut tells me it’s closer to $2.5m)

    • Safe to say that I was WAAAAY off on John Carter.

      • I’m right there with you, brother. I sat in an empty auditorium on a Saturday 10p.m. showing, I knew then I had no chance of winning this week’s derby. Thanks for playing, we look forward to your 21 jump street prediction.

        • Jason, my son and I went and saw Journey 2 (in 3D) and then John Carter (in IMAX 3D) and I’m not sure which theater had more people in attendance. To make matters worse, after the film a majority of the people leaving were openly (and in some cases, loudly) calling the movie “one of the $hittiest movies I’ve ever seen”.

          I personally thought it was just okay.

  • I’m looking forward to seeing The Lorax this weekend (maybe going to see Project X as well), and I think both films over perform.

    The Lorax: $42m
    Project X: $24m

    • Ok, I’m going higher on The Lorax….my gut tells me this is going to blow up this weekend.

      The Lorax: $52m
      Project X: $24m

      I think the with the lack of family movies out there, and with it showing in 2d, 3d and IMAX it’s going to be a monster hit.

      • The Lorax is tracking for over $60m…that’s amazing! Project X is looking at about $20m.

        Trevor/Jason, although it’s 3 weeks out..what’s your preliminary thoughts on the opening for Hunger Games?

        • Hunger Games will be huge. There’s a possibility for an opening near $90M, but surely over $70M.

          Thanks to Lorax over performing looks like I win the weekend as I predicted a bigger turnout overall. Joe even without your adjustments you beat us both!

          • Yeah, I’m thinking Hunger Games pushes for $100m. I’ll be at the midnight IMAX screening on the 22nd.

            There was just so little in the form of family entertainment that I had the feeling everyone was going to see The Lorax.

  • Act of Valor – $17m
    Gone – $7m
    Good Deeds – $19m
    Wanderlust – $12

    I don’t think Wanderlust (and Gone, for obvious reasons) makes the top 5 next week. I think Safe House, Journey 2 and The Vow (possibly) continue to hold up.

    • amend that…I’m going with Gone at $4m and Wanderlust at $10m. I think Safe House, Journey 2 and The Vow affect the numbers more than I initially thought.

      • That puts your weekend total at $50M – pretty close to the $51.4M actual, but not as close as my $51M :) You beat Jason though. Next weekend should be interesting, me and Jason are only $2M apart this time.

  • Ghost Rider – $26m
    This Means War – 15m

  • Wow. So predictions from Friday for the weekend are:
    The Vow: $40M
    Safe House: $35M
    Star Wars: $25M
    Journey 2: $20M
    Total: $120M – That puts me in the winner’s chair this weekend, if it continues to pan out the way it’s set.

  • I went to see Safe House last night, and the theater was pretty packed. The line for The Vow was outrageous; and had I known so many hot looking women were going to be seeing it at that hour, I might have gone as well! Star Wars had already been seated, but there were a fair number of fanboys in their costumes with light sabers in hand. Journey 2 was playing on the other side, so I couldn’t gauge the interest.

    I’m sorry if this posts twice, I thought I submitted it a short while earlier but I had laptop issues and it didn’t appear to have gone through.

  • So I went to see a midnight showing of Safe House and the theater was pretty crowded…The line for The Vow was ridiculous, and Star Wars had already seated (with a bunch of fanboys in costume with lightsabres in hand). The Box Office is going to be HUGE this weekend!

  • My predictions for the weekend totals:

    Journey 2: Mysterious Island – $17
    Safe House – $27
    Star Wars: Phantom Menace 3D – I think this could potentially reach 40+, but I’m going to go conservative and say $38
    The Vow – Taking into consideration that it’s Valentine’s Day weekend, I’m going to play it safe with $24. My gut still tells me that it comes in closer to $18, but my head says it pulls in a decent sized female audience.

  • It may sound insane that I’m forecasting a $34 million opening weekend for The Vow. However on previous V-day weekends Dear John opened with $30,468,614 and Valentines Day with $56,260,707.

    • Jason, your reasoning is valid. A number of the women in my office have already made plans too see the film this weekend. I was way off last weekend on my The Woman in Black prediction, but I’m feeling this one is going to under perform…have to hold off right now on what I think it’s going to do.

  • I really though The Woman in Black was going to tank…blew that one big time:
    Chronicle – $19,000,000
    The Woman in Black – $9,000,000
    Big Miracle – $8,500,000

    • I didn’t think it could take Chronicle, but I also didn’t think either would hit $20M and now they both look to. With Woman in Black skewing to a more female audience it has a good shot at taking the Super Bowl weekend.

      • Yeah, I really thought Chronicle was going to take the weekend. I thought it had a shot at $20m, but never thought Woman in Black was going to pull in the female audience. At this point, I think it should take the weekend, with the number of men that will be watching the Super Bowl.

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