Box Office Prediction Maverick 2012


The Premiere Box Office Prediction Game Site.

A new box office gaming site from Movie Mavericks. Predict opening weekend numbers to become the Box Office Ace!

Every week we’ll be placing our predictions for opening box office weekends for the biggest films in release this year, 2012, here on this page. Follow along with us and leave a comment with your expectations and predictions for the weekend. We get the bar value from the Hollywood Stock Exchange derivatives. All numbers are in millions and rounded to the nearest hundred thousand. We are carrying a running total of how far off we are by weekend, the person with the smallest number wins. We are doing three day weekends only, no four or five day holiday weekends allowed. There can be only one box office prediction maverick, who will it be?

You can use the pagination at the bottom to skip to a past weekend.

Weekend #52, Dec 28-30, 2012

Difference Running Totals:
Trevor: $1036.4
Jason: $985.9

Django Unchained

HSX Bar: $30
Trevor: $23
Jason: $22

Actual: $30.1

Les Miserables

HSX Bar: $30
Trevor: $28
Jason: $26

Actual: $27.3

Parental Guidance

HSX Bar: $10
Trevor: $9
Jason: $14

Actual: $14.6


138 thoughts on “Box Office Prediction Maverick 2012

  • December 6, 2012 at 6:00 pm
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    Hi guys!!

    How do weekend like this ever come about? I mean we’ve gotten quality films, for the most part, over the past few weeks….and then you get a weekend like this one, where we get the likes of Playing for Keeps. Are you kidding me?!!?!?! Was there really nothing else available for studios to release? It’s such a big deal for a film to finish the weekend at #1, and rather than take the chance that something good take the top spot away from Twilight, all we get is Playing for Keeps. That’s pretty freakin’ amazing! I’m going to say that Playing for Keeps finishes the weekend at $4M, but I won’t surprised if it ends up closer to $3M or less.

    As for the weekend #1, I think it’s going to be a dog fight between Lincoln and Skyfall, with an outside shot of Rise of the Guardians making a run at the top spot.

    Reply
  • November 30, 2012 at 4:14 pm
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    Hi guys!

    Just getting an internet connection back…so I’m going to keep it short and sweet…Killing Them Softly – $12M

    Reply
      • December 2, 2012 at 10:29 am
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        Not only do I wish I could go back and change my prediction…I SERIOUSLY wish I could go back and get my 2 hours back. What a disappointment! I liked a few of the film’s characters, but the underlying tones (that weren’t so underlying) about the economy, and the sloooooooow pacing killed the movie for me.It deserves the ‘F’ Cinemascore it received.

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        • December 2, 2012 at 1:09 pm
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          I’m glad I’m not alone in how much I hated killing them softly. The majority of critics seemed to love it. It does deserve the f it got from audiences.

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  • November 22, 2012 at 11:36 pm
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    Hi guys and Happy Thanksgiving to you both and your families!

    Not that I expect you to lose any sleep over it, but either way I’m sorry for being late.

    First, I’ve only got predictions for the weekend.

    Life of Pi was fantastic! The story was fantastic, and the film was beautifully shot and easily the best usage of 3D since Avatar. I think audiences are going to love this movie. $27M

    Rise of the Guardians is a film that will be a hit with families that have young children; young enough to still believe in the characters in the film. Although I’m not sure that it’s going to be that big a hit with older kids, I still expect it to do very well. $42M

    The Red Dawn remake took forever to get released. Regardless of whom is starring in the film (Hemsworth, etc.), I think the film is going to be a massive disappointment (and I don’t just mean at the box office). I do think people will still be interested in seeing the movie, but word of mouth is going to be terrible. $13M

    Although being released on only a limited number of screens, I do think Silver Linings Playbook will be cracking the top 10. The film has been receiving a lot of Oscar buzz, and although I did think the performances were really good and the film’s dialogue was strong, the movie felt entirely too predictable. I think the film is going to have the highest average per theater, and do fairly decent. $1.3M.

    Reply
  • November 14, 2012 at 7:17 pm
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    I wish I could say that this would be the last time we’d be getting a new Twilight film, but there’s just too much money to be left on the table and there’s no chance Summit passes it up. I think the clueless fan base of this series are going to come out in bus loads, and it makes me sick to my stomach. I’m going to say this his $155M, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull in upwards of $170M. Of course, nothing would make me happier than seeing it ‘tank’ with $100M – $125M, but that’s wishful thinking.

    Ever since the disappointing first trailer, I’ve said that Lincoln is the front runner for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see a large number of other nominations, and possible wins either. Daniel Day Lewis’ portrayal of the United States’ greatest President is remarkably uncanny. I think Lincoln is going to a biopic that does extremely well at the box office. It seems that I’ve completely taken over Trevor’s role as the ‘optimistic one’. I’m saying $23M.

    Reply
  • November 8, 2012 at 4:17 am
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    Hi guys!

    My new job has me running behind with the predictions this week.

    I’m going to cut right to the chase.

    I saw Skyfall last night and I enjoyed the movie quite a bit. I know that there’s been a lot of talk from people saying that this is the best one in the series. I can’t say that I agree with that, but I will say that it’s a definite throwback to the Bond of old. I had a few issues with the film, but we can discuss those after you’ve seen it. I expect the movie to do EXTREMELY well this weekend, and am going to say that it ends up somewhere around $78M.

    Reply
    • November 12, 2012 at 4:01 pm
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      Wow did Skyfall do better than we expected Joe! Jason got us on that one. $88m, damn.

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      • November 14, 2012 at 6:56 pm
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        Trevor, I can’t say that I’m really all that surprised. The movie was really good, was an EXTREME improvement over Quantum of Solace, and did an fantastic job of setting the stage for the future. I’m happy to see a movie that deserves to do well, actually perform well at the box office. Unlike some other films (cough, cough…Twilight…cough, cough).

        Reply
  • October 31, 2012 at 9:02 pm
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    Hi guys!!

    Another unspectacular weekend behind us. I’ll admit that I’m anxious as hell to see Cloud Atlas after Trevor’s extremely high praise. The rest of the garbage that came out though, can die a slow death as far as I’m concerned.

    As for this weekend’s offerings, I was lucky enough to see Wreck-It Ralph 2 weeks ago along with my son. I went in with somewhat high expectations, and am happy to say that the movie exceeded them. I loved the characters, I thought the voice work was great, and the animation was pretty good. I think Disney has a franchise on it’s hands. I think the numbers may end up skewed this weekend due to that bitch Sandy, but I still think this does really well. $52M

    Flight is a movie that really interests me. I’ve read that the film is about addiction, and that being something that I have a history with (my father was an alcoholic), I’m interested in seeing how it all plays out within the film. I tend to enjoy Denzel Washington performances, and especially like him in dramatic roles. I may be over shooting this, but since Trevor’s no longer optimistic, someone’s got to be. $23M

    The Man with the Iron Fists looks like it’s got ‘cult film’ written all over it. I see why some would enjoy this Tarantino style film, but I just don’t see that big of an audience paying to see it. I’m going to say $6.5, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it pull in much less.

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    • November 4, 2012 at 1:52 pm
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      Nice work Joe! Your were very close this weekend on your predictions. I recommend Cloud Atlas to you as well, movie buffs should experience it once. Flight looks appealing and I’d watch Iron fists but not at premium prices. Keep up the good work on the podcast!

      Reply
  • October 23, 2012 at 12:01 pm
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    Hi guys!

    I was a bit impressed by the lack of turnout for Paranormal Activity 4. My hope is that people will finally let franchises like this run their course and then crawl in a hole and die. The sad part is that even at a ‘disappointing’ $30M, the budget is only $5M so it’s going to make enough to warrant at least 1 or 2 more sequels.

    I was very disappointed by Alex Cross. Of course, that was before I saw the movie. I thought Perry was good, and did the character justice. Although I thought Fox did a great job playing a deranged character, I thought he came across as a little to cartoonish at times. I thought the script and direction were the film’s problems. I won’t hold my breath for that sequel you guys mentioned last week.

    This weekend’s films are a tough nut to crack.

    Chasing Mavericks has that feel good story we seem to get every year tied into some sport. I think the fact that it’s a surfing movie, that doesn’t revolve around a shark attack victim surviving and going on to succeed even with her shortcomings, is going to work against it. I’m seeing this one tonight, but I can’t say that I’d be going out of my way to pay money to see it. I think there’s enough quality films avaibable that this one gets skipped by a lot. $4M

    My read on Fun Size is that it’s going to do better than what most people think. The only question is how well do people expect it to do? I think the bar is set perfectly with what most expect, so I’m going to stick my thought of it doing better. $11M

    I never saw the original Silent Hill, but heard fairly positive things about it. Silent Hill: Revelation feels like a movie that missed its opportunity and should have come out 3-4 years earlier. I think with the number of Halloween related films currently playing that this one could find itself underperforming due to oversaturation. A not so confident $11M

    Finally we have Cloud Atlas a movie that absolutely confuses the hell out of me. I don’t know what it’s about other than that it crosses over many different time periods. The movie does look as though it’s going to be visually stunning and has an exceptional cast, but is it too confusing to draw in an audience? I fear that it’s another case of terrible marketing, which equates to low totals. $17M

    Reply
  • October 17, 2012 at 7:02 am
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    Hi guys!

    Trevor, thanks for joining us on the show on Sunday. It was great to have the opportunity to talk with you and have some fun and decent movie conversation.

    On to this weekend.

    I’m not going to waste a whole lot of time talking about Paranormal Activity 4. I’ve only ever seen the 1st film, and thought it was okay…but haven’t been the slightest bit impressed with any of the trailers since then, giving me no reason to see them. Unfortunately, I think audiences are enamored with these movies and this one will be no different. $45M

    I’m a MASSIVE James Patterson fan (I’ve got every book of his, which is pretty ridiculous since he puts out about 15 books a yeear) and a pretty big Alex Cross fan. I’ll admit that I’m anxious to see this one, but I’m also disappointed that Idris Elba didn’t end up in the starring role. Tyler Perry hasn’t looked bad, but it’s impossible not look at him and see Madea. I’d like to see the film be a huge hit, but I think $19 is more realistic.

    Reply
    • October 19, 2012 at 2:49 am
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      It was fun being a guest on As You Watch. I’m going to agree with your numbers for this weekend, I think it would be awesome if Alex Cross did over $20m, and I’ll be surprised if it does. High teens seems a little more attainable.

      Reply
  • October 9, 2012 at 8:17 am
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    Hi guys!

    I’m in awe at how much money Taken 2 made this past weekend. I know we tweeted back and forth about this, but god damn man….Are we seriously going to have to see Taken 3?!?! I’ve got to believe Neeson won’t do another one of these…of course, once the studio throws a ridiculous amount of $ at him, he’ll end up doing it.

    I was a little bit surprised at how disappointing Frankenweenie did, but hindsight being 20-20, I think we should have seen it coming. There’s never been much of an audience for stop-motion animation, it’s a kids movie done in black and white, and it came on the heels of the hugely popular Hotel Transylvania. I think we’re seeing the end of Tim Burton’s name carrying a film, and to me it’s about damn time.

    I really don’t have anything to say about Pitch Perfect so I won’t bother wasting the time.

    On to this week’s releases…

    Argo is my pick to be the dark horse Academy Award winner for Best Picture. I’ve got little expectation that it actually does win, but I think it has potential. I’m looking forward to seeing this one, and am happy to see Ben Affleck has been able to recreate himself as an actor thanks to how talented a director he’s become. I’ve taken over Trevor’s optimism; I think this draws big and is a surprise hit. $26M

    Here Comes the Boom is a movie that looks terrible. I know that Kevin James has been doing a lot of appearances to promote the film. It’s probably a good thing that he did, because that’s going to be the only chance this has. I understand why the bar is where it is, but I’m going lower. $13M

    Sinister is the next in line to be the ‘scariest movie to hit screens’ in a long time. I’ll admit that I like what I’ve seen in the trailers, and I think Ethan Hawke is a bankable star to have in horror movie. It’s impossible to figure out what horror movies people do and don’t want to see anymore, but I’ve got a feeling that this one does pretty good. $15M

    Finally, we have Seven Psychopaths. I think the film has a stellar cast, and opens up in such a large number of theaters that I’ve got a feeling fans of some of the actors are going to see this. I don’t think there’s enough buzz to warrant a huge opening, but I can see this raking in close to $10M. I’ll go just under and say $9M.

    Reply
  • October 4, 2012 at 5:10 am
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    Hi guys!

    Hotel Transylvania was a pleasant surprise last weekend. I thought it would do really well, but not THAT well.

    I was glad to see Looper perform nicely. I

    I’m hoping to see both of these, Frankenweenie and maybe Taken 2 over the upcoming weekend…although it’s unlikely, and I’ll have pick 2.

    As for the new releases coming out….

    Frankenweenie – I originally had thought this had the potential to pull in $20M+, and it still could…but I’m in agreement with you both that the success of Hotel Transylvania is going to seriously hinder Frankenweenie‘s numbers. I still think the bar is set just a tad low though. $17M

    Pitch Perfect – This is a tough film to get a read on. Prior to last weekend, I’d have gone with $8M – $10M and felt comfortable doing so. However, the numbers it pulled in on just 355 screens is impossible to ignore. I’m far from being the target audience on this, but evidently it’s striking a chord with the ‘Glee’ crowd. – $16M

    Taken 2 – Regardless of the fact that this is a sequel that never needed to be made, the success of the first movie makes it impossible not to expect this to open at #1 with a respectable total. The trailers make me feel like this is going to end up as something closer to The Hangover 2, with the same storyline from the first being altered slightly for the 2nd. The main thing going for it is watching Liam Neeson kick ass again. – $33M

    Reply

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