Mon Update: Box Office: Renner Rejuvenates ‘Bourne’ Franchise for #1, Ferrell’s and Galifianakis’ ‘Campaign’ a Success at #2, ‘Dark Knight’ #3, ‘Hope Springs’ #4, ‘Total Recall’ Crashes to #5

Jeremy Renner in The Bourne Legacy

Monday Actuals Update: Mon @ 2:15pm.

All numbers below are actuals.

Box Office estimates for the August 10-12, 2012 weekend are coming in hot for Universal and their Bourne re-boot sans the title character and substituted with another actor in the lead role. While I’m still not convinced Jeremy Renner has much weight in the box office, he does seem to be choosing the right roles. With $38M this is far over our predictions of $22-$27M and, while under the last two installments (Supremacy $52.5M, Ultimatum $69M), this isn’t a horrible opening considering it’s a reboot. Universal will more than likely try to continue the franchise.

Editorial: From Timothy Dalton to Jeremy Renner, ‘Bond’ is ‘Bourne’ Again

The Campaign proves to be another hit for Will Ferrell and nudges Zack Galifianakis closer to being somewhat of a box office draw. It’s $26.6M puts it just under Jason’s $28M prediction, but a bit off my $32M. Depending on word of mouth this could go over $100M, but it’s too soon to assume a multiplier over 3x for this.

Both CinemaScores for The Campaign (B-) and The Bourne Legacy (B) put them in the ‘ok’ range, just as we’ve been seeing most of the year. Don’t expect word of mouth to be huge helpers for these in coming weeks, it’s luke warm at best.

Hope Springs opened on Wednesday giving it a 2 day lead earning $4.3M going into this weekend’s box office. Seems to have paid off for Sony, considering I feel like this is targeting the same generation as Bourne, although obviously a different sex. It’s $14.7M is less than our predicted $17-$20M, but with the Wednesday and Thursday grosses it falls right in line.

The most interesting fight this weekend was over 5th place as Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days proved a worthy adversary for Total Recall. In the end though, Recall won by a measly $100k and with what’s being reported as the total, it’s no wonder Sony didn’t post numbers for the big sci-fi action movie over the weekend. Recall has completely faltered in its second weekend with only $8M after posting a decent opening weekend in line with previous Len Wiseman (produced) and Kate Beckinsale flick Underworld Awakening. That movie only fell 50% in its second weekend though, but had weaker weekday numbers than Recall which puts them neck and neck out of this weekend. Recall is looking at about a 70% drop and it’s all due to horrible word of mouth. Sad to say that Underworld Awakening will likely gross more than Total Recall. The one thing this film would like to forget is its $125M budget.

View Our 2012 Box Office Predictions Here

#1 The Bourne Legacy (NEW)
Fri $13.9M     Sat $14.5M     Sun $9.7M     Weekend $38.1M
CinemaScore: B

#2 The Campaign (NEW)
Fri $10.2M     Sat $9.5M     Sun $6.9M     Weekend $26.6M
CinemaScore: B-

#3 The Dark Knight Rises
Fri $5.6M     Sat $7.8M     Sun $5.5M     Weekend $19M     Total: $389.6M

#4 Hope Springs (NEW)
Fri $4.6M     Sat $6.1M     Sun $3.9M     Weekend $14.7M

#5 Total Recall
Fri $2.5M     Sat $3.2M     Sun $2.3     Weekend $8.01M     Total: $44.1M

#6 Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: Dog Days
Fri $2.9M     Sat $3.1M     Sun $2M     Weekend $8M     Total: $31M

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